 |
||||||
Go here to review information
on the draft General Plan Growing pains in a suburban boomtownElk Grove sees bumper crop of new homes and schools -- and crime.By Crystal Carreon - Bee Staff Writer
|
veLincoln
|
Current Lincoln is dark Grey
New WWTP is the small 'chunk' to the SW |
 |
Future Lincoln is light Grey
This includes the 7 new villages proposed and 2 special PDs |
In housing slump, Lincoln looms large
Once-sizzling city now overbuilt, and price wars have a ripple effect
By Jim Wasserman - Bee Staff Writer
Published 12:00 am PST Tuesday, January 2, 2007On a wintry weekday in California's fastest-growing small city, Bryan Petersen steps from a sales office to discuss how eager home builders are to make any kind of deal with people like him.
"They're asking $453,000 and offering $60,000 in incentives," he says, standing outside a 2,700-square-foot model where flags of a giant corporate builder whip in the wind. He nods back toward the sales rep and grins.
"And she said, 'Make me an offer.'
"I think you could get this probably for $375,000," says Petersen, a father of four who arrived in Roseville last year from near Las Vegas. Says his mother, Barbara, visiting from Orange County: "That's unbelievable."
Believe it, say Sacramento-area real estate analysts.
As the nation's largest publicly traded home builders overbuilt and then jostled for a shrinking share of area home buyers last year, they turned the boomtown suburb of Lincoln, population 39,000, into one of the Sacramento region's most ruthless sales battlegrounds -- and conversely, one of the best for buyers, Peterson believes.
A city that burst off its fertile terrain during the five-year housing boom now showcases the rough-and-tumble tactics of U.S. home builders as they unload excess inventory in once-sizzling markets, from California's Central Valley and Inland Empire to the coasts of Florida. It's no surprise in Lincoln to see advertised price cuts on new homes of $96,000, $103,000, $150,000 -- even $221,000.
The price-cutting battles reveal how pressures on big public companies to sell extra stock can also impact individual sellers and small-time speculators -- even entire counties. Real estate experts blame Lincoln's price wars for fueling a 55 percent drop in new home sales in Sutter and Yuba counties.
Some analysts, in fact, say it was the slowdown in Lincoln that signaled the end of the housing boom regionally when, in late 2005, it became the area's first market to buckle under the weight of too many new homes similarly sized and priced.
No other city in the region has so much new building activity -- 33 projects and 14 home builders -- for such a small population and place. Or such a reliance on supersized master-planned communities: the 6,800-home Sun City Lincoln Hills, 4,300-home Twelve Bridges and 2,900-home Lincoln Crossing.
"Lincoln Crossing has 17 projects, and they're all fighting it out on similar lot sizes," says Greg Paquin, a Folsom-based home builder consultant. "With public companies you're going to have some infighting."
Builders rushed into Lincoln in 2002 and quickly turned it into the state's fastest-growing small city. But they kept building at a boom intensity early last year even as the market cooled significantly.
With more homes than buyers, they unleashed giveaways, incentives and discounts that are only now beginning to ease as the inventory of unsold houses slowly shrinks. Through Nov. 1, builders sold 1,249 new houses in Lincoln, compared to 1,813 in all of 2005, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a Costa Mesa-based housing analyst.
But the competition among big corporate builders has had a number of collateral effects. Speculators who missed the window to "flip" their investments now find them nearly impossible to sell. And the alluring discounts for new Lincoln homes have flattened sales to the north in Yuba and Sutter counties.
Builders in those two counties sold 811 homes in the first nine months of 2006 -- after selling 1,789 during the same time in 2005, according to Paquin.
"That was the affordable market when prices in Lincoln and Placer County were increasing," he says. "Plumas, Linda, Olivehurst and Marysville were the affordable option. If you can get a similar-sized house in Lincoln for the same price, nine times out of 10 people will stay in Placer County."
Such fallout represents a typical overreach during a housing boom, says Gregory Gieber, who tracks publicly traded home builders for the St. Louis-based investment firm A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc.
"They overproduce like the car industry overproduces," Gieber says. "Then they have to cut the price. Once you start in on a building project you pretty much have to build to completion and take what you can get for it."
For the 510 Lincoln homeowners who had "for sale" signs in their yards in early December, competing against Wall Street home builders like Centex, D.R. Horton and Lennar is difficult.
"A lot of investors who got into these homes last year made a big mistake, and I think a lot of them will be forced into bankruptcy," says Henry Ung, an Elk Grove real estate agent who represents two investors and bought an investment home in Lincoln himself. "These investors cannot compete with the builder. It's very tough for us."
In 2004 and 2005 investors bought up to 17 percent of the homes sold in Lincoln, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla-based property researcher. Now, buyers such as Petersen drive past their "for sale" signs because it's cheaper to buy a newly built home.
"This reminds me of Orange County a long time ago," says Petersen's mother, Barbara.
The Aliso Viejo resident remembers new housing there exploding just as it has in Placer County.
Eventually, she says, higher prices will follow and make today's deals a memory.
"I think in seven to 10 years this region will be unaffordable," she says.
At City Hall, officials acknowledge possibilities that 2006's slowdown may cost Lincoln its fastest-growing small city status. But thousands more new houses are still a sure bet, says community development director Rod Campbell.
In 10 years the city will be well on its way to a 2050 build-out population of 120,000. Campbell says seven more major residential and commercial "villages" are in the city's planning process.
"Over time we need to develop enough population to attract retail users," he says.
Lincoln, a railroad town incorporated in 1890, slumbered through a century before being discovered a decade ago by the nation's largest developer of active adult communities. By the late 1990s, the city became a destination for Bay Area retirees lured to Del Webb Corp.'s Sun City Lincoln Hills.
A decade later and a short distance to the west in Lincoln Crossing, Doug Pautsch concedes it's been a tough 12 months for Lincoln's home builders. Oversupply and a lull in buying activity drove prices "artificially low," said Pautsch, the Sacramento division president for Dallas-based Centex Homes.
Centex, the city's leading builder, accounted for nearly one in three of Lincoln's new home sales last year, according to Hanley Wood. But Pautsch sees an improving balance of supply and demand for builders who have slowed housing starts and used discounts to trim excess supply.
"We actually raised prices in our Lincoln communities (in mid-December) and a couple in Elk Grove," he said.
"They're not huge, $5,000 to $10,000. ... It's not major appreciation, but we're starting to see the market stabilize and creep back up."
Petersen says Lincoln Crossing sales agents tell him "there's been a lot of sales" in December. So far he's not committed.
"We're like a lot of people on the sidelines waiting to see what the market is doing," he said.
Petersen has browsed west Roseville, Folsom and Rocklin, and he's seen how hungry builders are, especially on Lincoln's corporate battlegrounds.
Standing outside a model home there he says what U.S. builders most want to hear these days:
"I think this (subdivision) is probably the best deal for us."
Draft General Plan
expands city services, sphere
By: D.E. Kern, The Lincoln News Messenger
Up to 710 acres of "Important Farmland," as defined
by the California Department of Conservation, could be converted to
other uses under the Draft General Plan currently under consideration by
the city of Lincoln.
However, City Councilman Primo Santini said people should be careful not
to misinterpret data and sound bites.
"It's important to realize that this plan was not
created in a vacuum," he said. "We've been working on this for about 3
1/2 years. We've had, I believe, 13 meetings and they've been well
attended. I think most people, while they may not agree with everything
that we're planning, realize that Lincoln needs to grow to provide the
services its citizens are telling us they need."
Santini insisted the city was not snatching up farmland, adding "nothing
could be further from the truth."
Meanwhile, Rodney Campbell, the city's director of community
development, said he and other Lincoln officials had heard little
feedback to date on the plan. The deadline for submitting written
comments on the Draft Environmental Impact Report on the Draft General
Plan is 5 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 16.
City officials will respond to the public's comments in writing,
Campbell said. He added that responses will become a part of the public
record.
One individual lending the process a watchful eye is Placer County
Supervisor Robert Weygandt. He represents District 2, which encompasses
all of Lincoln as well as an area he described as "most of the farmland
in the county's lower elevations."
Weygandt said he's engaged in several work sessions with city officials,
all aimed at ensuring that the city's General Plan works with, and not
against, the Placer County Conservation Plan.
That plan, as Weygandt briefly explained, attempts to account for
development in a manner that raises money for conservation. Ideally,
strip malls will pay for salmon habitat.
Weygandt said that, while keeping Lincoln's city fathers and the county
on the same page has sometimes been difficult, the city has "...been
very open to working with us.
"Yes, Primo and I may disagree on what that magic growth number (needed
by Lincoln) is," he added. "(But), strategically, the city is stating
that they need to have enough population to fuel adequate sales tax
capture. There's no question that's true."
The city's Draft General Plan calls for expanding its sphere of
influence from its current 21,600 acres to 35,500 acres, enough land to
accommodate a population of 132,000. It would divide that land into
seven villages and three special use districts.
Santini said each of the villages plans for a certain level of
commercial uses so residents' can have their day-to-day needs met near
home. He added that he learned during a recent Sacramento Area Council
of Governments' meeting that most traffic is not generated during
work-related commutes but during trips undertaken to purchase goods and
services.
Santini believes officials have planned for extraordinarily efficient
use of land, especially when one considers that the draft plan calls for
40 percent open space in all future development. But he invites
criticism.
"You will have people commenting on the environmental impact of our
general plan," he said. "I invite all those comments. I look at it as
'Yes, Lincoln has, through this very thorough process, looked at what it
needs to do to provide for its citizens.
"If people have suggestions about how we can reach those goals in
another way and do it in an environmentally friendly manner, I want to
hear it."
Campbell pointed out that there is the opportunity for City Council to
alter the Draft Plan in response to citizen comments.
However, like Santini, Campbell said the city had certain objectives in
mind when the General Plan process began.
"The city needed to make it sure it would be self-sustaining from a
fiscal point of view," he said. "(We) needed more land. City's have a
certain level of services that they consider to be desirable."
While the seven villages account for most of the city's residential
population, the special-use districts allow the city to protect key
public facilities, including the Lincoln Regional Airport, the new
wastewater treatment facility and the landfill, Campbell said. Of those
facilities, the airport had the largest amount of influence on planning,
but it's also an area chockfull of economic opportunities, he said.
"Because of the limitations in those zones, you're not able to put
typical urban (dwelling there," Campbell said, using the landfill as an
example. "You don't want to have people move in there and then wanting
the landfill to move or close down. There's a big public investment in
that landfill."
For Santini, growth is an investment in the citizens of Lincoln, who he
says deserve amenities comparable to residents in Roseville and Rocklin.
"Our citizens are telling us, they're voting with their pocketbooks,
telling us 'these are the sort of retail stores we like to frequent,'"
he said. "We're just trying to provide, close to home, the services that
our citizens are telling us that they want."
Tell Us Your Views - Sacramento Bee article
Most don't want growth
Published
12:00 am PST Thursday, November 9, 2006
I was very pleased to see your article about the growth of Lincoln. I have lived in Lincoln 20 years and have not found any of my friends and neighbors happy or supporting what is happening with Lincoln.
The City Council members, specifically Primo Santini, profess that what the people want, based on a poll they took, is big-box stores and more growth. Who was in that sample? I wasn't, nor were any of my neighbors. So I do not believe they really know what the people want.
It is absolutely a crime to see what is happening to the beautiful rural area of Lincoln. It is being gobbled up by developers whom this City Council are making very wealthy while we, the residents, lose the rural atmosphere that everyone came here to enjoy.
I can support a population of 50,000 to 60,000 but not 130,000. That goes beyond maintaining a rural small-town atmosphere that Primo Santini professes can be maintained along with big-city amenities. All we are going to get (which we have already seen) is more traffic, more crime and unhappy residents. It is time for the City Council members to look at what they are doing to this area and stop the growth. Keep the area as rural as you can and save the land.
-- Dori Childress, Lincoln resident, nursing education consultant
* * *
Don't make Lincoln into L.A.
I moved to Lincoln in 2002 when I fell in love with its small-town ambience. Having lived in Los Angeles most of my life, I was happy to leave all the big-city amenities -- traffic, noise and crime -- behind me. In fact, I hate when I have to go back, even for a couple of days, and I can't wait to come home.
Unfortunately, some of these things have already followed me. Who knew that a casino was going to open? Enough of the "amenities." Keep our small-town/rural lifestyle.
-- J. Layton Lincoln
* * *
City has a long way to go
I appreciate the opening of a channel of communication regarding Lincoln provided by the article in The Bee's recent South Placer section. I know that you are asking about whether there should be a big-city or small-town approach for Lincoln, but there are some much larger issues for Lincoln as it sets a plan for the future.
I moved to the Twelve Bridges subdivision called Verdera about one year ago from Roseville. This was a way of upgrading my Roseville home and thinking Lincoln would be a city that people want to "live in, work in and raise families," as the city councilman states in the article.
I will tell you that I have not had one positive experience with any level of the city of Lincoln since I have been here. I contrast this to Roseville, where I think the city extends the message of "please come to Roseville, and we will do everything possible to make your experience pleasant."
Lincoln's message is, "You chose to come here, so take it or leave it." I have experienced this when inquiring about very high water bills or volunteering for service to the city of Lincoln.
In the event you think of me as an unhappy utility ratepayer, I will say that I am a planning director of a large school district and have to deal with public concerns every day. Lincoln has a long way to go. If the real estate market was such that I could sell my home in Lincoln, I would have moved back to Roseville by now.
-- John Palmer Lincoln
* * *
Growth goals are alarming
I have been watching with alarm the growth goals of the Lincoln City Council. I moved to Lincoln three years ago, drawn by the rural atmosphere and small-town ambience. Having spent the prior 40 years in the San Jose metropolitan area, I chose this area specifically for its country charm.
Lincoln has all the necessary amenities right now. We have good schools, a new library being constructed and a college nearby. Police and fire services are available and responsive to the local community. City services are accessible. We are in close proximity to major shopping areas and have many new shopping opportunities right here in town.
My experience shows me that larger is not better. A simple example of this is a small local restaurant that becomes very popular and opens a second location. The food and personal service, as well as the pleasure of being recognized as you enter, are gone. What you came to love will never be the same. To our city officials, I say, please don't let this happen to Lincoln.
-- Brenda Bowcut Lincoln
* * *
Rural lifestyle, quiet valued
As I was reading the news article this morning about the proposed expansion of Lincoln to more than 100,000 people within 50 years, it brought back memories of how nice it used to be when I was growing up in the Bay Area, during the 1960s through the '90s.
Over that period, the number of people and cars on the road got to be unbearable, as jobs and opportunity continued to expand and the price of housing continued to increase.
I moved to the city of Lincoln in 2001 and have lived here ever since. It's a great small town with a real sense of family and community. We enjoy the rural lifestyle and the quiet.
I hope we do not move in that direction of overbuilding and too many people in this small town, because people don't want to drive 20 or so minutes to go shopping. I understand the need for sales tax to help manage our city, but at what cost? Let's learn not to make the same mistake that has happened in the Bay Area.
-- Art Cabrales Rural Lincoln
* * *
Growth ruins quality of life
I speak from personal experience when it comes to the growth of a community. I grew up on my grandfather's fruit ranch in Campbell near San Jose. Growth took part of the ranch for an expressway. Other parts had to be donated for improvements along roads. Eventually, the ranch had to be sold, because the taxes were more than earnings from fruit production. We moved to Martinez, where again, growth eventually ruined the quality of daily living. The two-lane country highway not far from our house became a six-lane elevated freeway, and the noise was so bad that in the summer, you could hardly have a conversation and enjoy our backyard. After retirement, we decided a place in the country would be where we wanted to live the rest of our days, and we found a wonderful spot in rural Lincoln. The day we signed papers on our house, we were told about the Lincoln Hills development. Here we go again is all I could think. The changes since then (eight years) are heartbreaking. I hate Highway 65 and fighting the traffic. I hate the additional noise, lights and everything that goes along with growth. Beautiful trees have been taken down. The smell and sight of exhaust coming from equipment being used and all the additional cars on the roads are disgusting. Officials are twisted to think growth is necessary because residents want the shops and amenities found in larger cities. The original small-town ambience already was in Lincoln and was chased out with the competition of big retailers coming in little by little. I'm not so unrealistic to know that some growth is necessary for our economy, but developers are ravenous and have no regard for "the fool on the hill." Obviously, I'm for growth to be as slow as possible, but the realistic part of me is very sad to know that growth always wins, and my humble opinion means nothing. I don't like looking at the stars and sunsets with city lights in my eyes.
-- Pearlene Munson rural Lincoln
* * *
November 14, 2006
RE: New proposed General Plan
In my opinion, I (along with thousands) moved to Lincoln instead of somewhere else because we like Lincoln for what it appears to be today. I moved to this area primarily to live closer to family who found the small town of Lincoln to be the ideal place to raise a family. Note: SMALL town of Lincoln. I did not move to Lincoln with hopes or expectations of it becoming like Roseville, Rocklin, Sacramento, San Francisco, Loomis, Wheatland, etc. I like Lincoln!
I am not against growth: adding more residents, commercial, retail, and industries. I readily admit I am enjoying the additional restaurants, grocery stores, Target, Home Depot, parks, community events, and other choices as a result of the growth. I am not against growth if it is responsibly planned for with needed infrastructure in place to support the existing population. I am not against growth if it is determined by the visions of the majority of Lincoln residents, not just a few.
I am against increasing the population for the primary purpose of gaining more commercial, retail, and/or industrial. I don’t mind driving from Lincoln to neighboring cities for Ikea, the Outlets, the Galleria mall, famous entertainment, or even a professional basketball game. I love coming home to open space, large oak trees, surrounding farms/ranches, less congestion, downtown, and the friendly neighborhoods of Lincoln.
I am concerned that the proposed general plan will negatively impact the downtown area that contributes to Lincoln’s charm. Currently, it can take me up to 10 minutes to get across G St. at some intersections, or through downtown Lincoln, during certain times of the day. The bypass will not solve that problem if you want to encourage tens of thousands more people to shop downtown. Future commercial centers might draw shoppers away from downtown due to easier access and plentiful parking. (Perhaps we should include a plan of becoming more like downtown Placerville or Old Sacramento with additional downtown parking structures?)
Does the City of Lincoln have commitments from specific developers and businesses that if the population reaches a certain number they will build in Lincoln? Galleria-type malls are not in every city reaching 100,000+ people. Trader Joe’s are not in every city of 50,000 or more. In my observations, companies do not build in a growing area simply because the population reaches a magic number. Population is not the only factor. My understanding is that residents’ income, education, and career choices are also factors in where companies decide to build. For example, I don’t think Ikea, Microsoft, or Neiman Marcus would build in Lincoln simply because the population reached 100,000+.
I am concerned having a primary goal of adding more residents will not result in the anticipated benefits and could possibly destroy Lincoln’s existing qualities. Growth does not create the perfect place to live. (“Perfect” is, of course, strictly a matter of opinion.) There are many California cities with larger populations than Lincoln’s, with big-name companies, that I would not live in. Creating a wonderful place to live with a day-to-day quality of life takes more than just having certain stores within a few minutes of your home.
Lincoln is the “All American City” at its current population--now, today. Will the proposed growth enhance or eliminate the factors earning Lincoln the “All American City” title? Will the proposed general plan enhance or eliminate the reasons why so many people currently want to live in, work in, and raise a family in Lincoln? Could the City of Lincoln be better? Absolutely! How? The following are my suggestions, ideas, and concerns.
- Regional Park: It appears there is only ONE major connector street (Joiner Parkway) to this major regional park. My understanding of a regional park is usage would include tournament play. This means 4 fields of 18 players (72 cars) with fans (72+ cars) and support (75 cars and trucks) for an approximate influx of perhaps 220+ cars on Joiner Parkway at every hour of scheduled play. WHEN and IF (potential funding delays) the bypass is completed, many cars would use Nicolaus to go west to the bypass while a few cars (50+) will go east to connect to HWY65. The remainder of the cars will use Joiner Parkway. It appears the park’s northeast boundary almost touches HWY 65. A second major connector street should be included across the UP railroad tracks for direct connecting to HWY 65 at the park’s northeast boundary to ease traffic flow to the west, south, and east residential streets.
- On the west side of Joiner Parkway, between Fifth St. and Nicolaus, there is a small area zoned commercial from Joiner Parkway west to the backyards of Brookview homes. This appears to be a very small and awkward lot for commercial. What type of commercial is envisioned there? Are you planning another traffic light at this commercial zone entrance to allow traffic to flow into the commercial from north and south on Joiner Parkway? Will northbound traffic have to do a U-turn at Nicolas and Joiner Parkway to get to this commercial? What major requirements are documented to reduce the negative visual impact for the Brookview residents such as: privacy protection, green belt between all the homes and the commercial buildings, limited operating hours, low lighting to not disturb wildlife in the nature preserve of the southern tributary of the Markham Ravine directly southwest, parking spaces away from the home sites/backyards, a retaining wall to prevent backyard access from customers, etc.
- Whispering Oaks: all maps indicate zoning is RE and it should remain RE (apples to apples).
- Exceptional heavy concentration of regional and community commercial along the 65 bypass. What feeder streets will be used by Sun City Lincoln Hill and Twelve Bridges residents to reach the regional commercial east of them? What feeder streets will be used by Bickford Ranch residents to access the regional commercial hub? The 193 to East Ave.? The 193 to Nicolaus? The 193 to Lincoln Blvd. to the bypass? Ferrari Ranch Road? Twelve Bridges Road to the bypass, Joiner Parkway to Nicolaus? From downtown—Lincoln Blvd. to the bypass or Nicolaus? Please do not destroy the existing grand old oak trees currently alive on the median on Nicolaus between Joiner Parkway and Tower Mart to accommodate the increased traffic.
- The benefits of increasing the amount of commercial, businesses, industrial, etc. closer to Lincoln residents physically, will be negated with commute times tripled or quadruped due to the tripling of the population.
- Once the bypass is in place, please prohibit semi-trucks from using Joiner Parkway to the airport area.
- Twelve Bridges and Sun City Lincoln Hills are the obvious places to move for quiet neighborhoods with good traffic flow unlike the planned heavy traffic everywhere else.
- I have a concern that over the coming years, many of Sun City Lincoln Hills residents will have decreased driving abilities especially at night. Should more city area be zoned commercial, retail, and business closer to Sun City Lincoln Hills?
- The current population of 55+ in Sun City Lincoln Hills will probably decrease over the next 25+ years. The impact of Sun City Lincoln Hills 25 to 50 years from now will have a different impact on Lincoln. I suggest a very detailed study of future population trends be conducted BEFORE approving any new general plan.
- It appears that the committed 40% open space is located predominately on the east side of the railroad tracks. This is due to annexing and planned development that did not include zoning for city-wide balanced commercial and industrial. More open space with more low to medium density housing must be added or zones changed to such to the entire west side of Lincoln to offset the increase of commercial, industrial, and retail.
- Personally, I am concerned with the northwest corner of Fifth St. and Joiner Parkway. This is part of the redevelopment area. It is zoned R-20. This means more apartments identified as affordable housing. Whatever is built there, will be a major intrusion in the homes and backyards of several Brookview residents. Personally, every potential west-facing window on this corner lot will have clear visibility into my livingroom, bathroom, and master bedroom windows. This is true of many of the Brookview homes. Also, the City of Lincoln is committed to spending money on the restoration and enhancement of the southern tributary of the Markham Ravine that is directly adjacent to this corner lot. I hope that the City of Lincoln will be prudent and sensitive in what is approved on this northwest corner lot of Fifth St. and Joiner Parkway.
I am sure I would have more ideas, suggestions, and concerns if I had studied the general plan more intently. Unfortunately, this is all I have time for before November 16, 2006.
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to share my concerns.
Sue Hamman
2066 Fifth St.
Lincoln, CA 95648
Community Links:
Contribute to MySpace for LLL
What's NEW in your neighborhood?
Lincoln Future/Current Construction
Community Forum
Coming Soon
Free link for the PDF reader to 'open' the files on this site,
click here
